matt's pats blog

Recently, MPB reader patsgirl asked "Hey matt…do you know what BB's win percentage is when playing a team twice in the same season?" Intrigued by the question, I went back and got the data from Bill Belichick's entire career as Patriots head coach (from the 2000 season onward). What I found was interesting.

Overall (including playoffs), Belichick's rematch win percentage is 71% (25/35). That being said, his rematch winning percentage after he won the first meeting is 75% (18/24), and the percentage after he lost the first meeting is 64% (7/11). Remember: most of this data comes from matches against the Bills, Jets, Dolphins, and Colts since they are (or, in the case of the Colts, used to be) in our division. At least two of those rematch losses came during the final game of the season when Belichick wasn't playing all of his starters.

The playoffs are where it gets interesting. Overall, Belichick has a 78% (7/9) winning percentage when facing a team in the playoffs who he had already faced in the regular season. That percentage may not seem high, but this one will blow you away: If he won the first meeting, Belichick has a 100% (4/4) playoff rematch win percentage in the playoffs. But, he only has a 60% (3/5) rematch win percentage if he lost the first meeting.

There are a few interesting nuggets from these stats:

• Belichick has never lost a playoff rematch with the Pats if he won the first meeting.
• The only teams to ever beat the Belichick Patriots in the playoffs had already beaten them in the regular season.
• This also means that no team has ever beaten a Belichick Pats team without first playing them (and winning) in the regular season.