matt's pats blog

Thursday, 8:15PM

Bears (+3) over Redskins [LOSS: Redskins 24, Bears 16]
Neither of these teams has been impressive (or consistent, for that matter), so I'm going with the points. Not to mention the Skins' recent stretch, which has got to be flat-out draining. Think about it: they find out that their star safety is tragically murdered, they dedicate the following Sunday's game to their late teammate, they lose the game in the final minute after a very hard-fought game, attend the funeral, and have to play another game on a mere 3 days rest. That's just too much to deal with if you ask me. Trust me, I'll be rooting for them, but I'm exhausted just thinking about their past week and a half.

SUNDAY, 1:00PM

Jaguars (-10.5) over Panthers [WIN: Jaguars 37, Panthers 6]
Before beating the 2nd-worst team in the league last week, the Panthers had lost 5 in a row, and before the Jags were slightly edged by the Colts last week, they were on a nice little winning streak. This week, these teams go back to the patterns they established before last week took place. The Jags are a much better team in all aspects of the game.

Cowboys (-10.5) over Lions [LOSS: Cowboys 28, Lions 27]
The Lions are falling apart, having lost 4 straight and having received the devastating news that their star wideout is gone for the year. The Cowboys, on the other hand, have taken down every team in their path with the exception of the best team of this generation. They won a huge one last week against the Packers, and don't seem to be looking back at all.

Bills (-7) over Dolphins [WIN: Bills 38, Dolphins 17]
The Dolphins' performance against the Jets was just pitiful. It changed my view of them from one that was much better than their record reflected, to possibly the worst team I've seen in my lifetime. I think the Bills run them out of Buffalo, then I think the Ravens and Pats both take it to them as well, and it will come down to their Week 17 game against the Bengals. I can only pray that the NFL has the sense of humor to televise that game nationally.

Eagles (-2.5) over Giants [LOSS: Eagles 13, Giants 16]
This is one of those lines that you look at and say to yourself "how on earth are the 8-4 Giants getting points against a 5-7 Philadelphia team that they held to 3 points the last time they played?". But then you think about Eli Manning's recent performances and how Jimmy Johnson's blitz-all-the-time schemes rattle even the best quarterbacks' rhythm, and couldn't you see Philly taking a couple INT's to the house and holding the Giants to 6 or 9 total points? I sure can.

Packers (-10.5) over Raiders [WIN: Packers 38, Raiders 7]
This is a line I feel extremely confident about regardless of who's running the Green Bay offense. I find it extremely hard to imagine a game at Lambeau that Favre doesn't start, but even if it's Aaron Rodgers, I'm confident he'll be able to put up points against Oakland based on what he showed last week. The Pack bounce back in this one.

Chargers (even) over Titans [WIN: Chargers 23, Titans 17]
This one is going to come down to LaDainian vs. Haynesworth, and I'm going to guess that the Chargers will run the ball around Fat Albert. If they don't, I reserve the right to reverse this pick…

Bengals (-9) over Rams [PUSH: Bengals 19, Rams 10]
Without Marc Bulger, the Rams become the team they were in the early weeks of the season. Despite the Bengals' porous D, they should be able to plug 7-8 guys in the box to help contain Steven Jackson without having to worry too much about the Rams' passing game. I just don't see the St. Louis offense keeping up with Cinci's.

Bucs (-3) over Texans [LOSS: Bucs 14, Texans 28]
The Bucs are a very good football team. Bet you didn't expect to see that written anywhere going into Week 14. You certainly can't argue it though–they're 8-4, they've won 4 straight, they've beaten some good teams along the way, they have a top-5 ranked defense and they can put up points when they need to. I don't think Vegas has recognized this yet, so we'll ride these guys for as long as we can.

SUNDAY, 4:15PM

Pats (-10.5) over Steelers [WIN: Pats 34, Steelers 13]
I know, I know. I said that we need to ride out the Pats until they don't cover twice in a row, and I realize they failed to cover each of the past two weeks. But if you examine this game, you can't possibly take the Steelers in this one because a) Vegas finally brought this line down to normal NFL levels, and b) the Steelers are going about this entire week with such a cocky attitude, guaranteeing victories and calling the Pats overrated, which is exactly the recipe that New Englanders needed to awake the sleeping giant. Thanks for stopping by, Pittsburgh, and hope to beat you again in the playoffs…

Seahawks (-7) over Cardinals [WIN: Seahawks 42, Cardinals 21]
The Cards are good, and could be headed to the playoffs, but with Boldin and Fitzgerald both questionable, I'd be frightened taking them. Especially when you consider that the Seahawks have only lost one game at home this year and are riding a 4-game winning streak, 7 points is not a lot to give up when considering all factors.

Vikings (-8.5) over 49ers [WIN: Vikings 27, 49ers 7]
The Vikes may be only 6-6, but they've won 3 games in a row and are scoring a boatload of points in the process. With their 2-headed rushing monster back in effect, the Niners don't stand a chance in this one.

Browns (-3.5) over Jets [WIN: Browns 24, Jets 18]
The Browns could have won last week at Arizona on a last-second catch by Kellen Winslow, and before that, they had won 5 of their last 6 games. I know the Jets are probably feeling good after beating Appalachian State last week, but they don't have the firepower to keep up with Cleveland's high-powered offense.

Broncos (-6.5) over Chiefs [WIN: Broncos 41, Chiefs 7]
The Broncos have Travis Henry coming back this week with a huge weight off of his shoulders after finding out that he would not be suspended for a year, and I think he makes a statement this game. The Chiefs' offensive line is beat up, which is going to limit Kolby Smith's production against a weak Denver rush defense, and the Mile High Factor will push this one beyond the spread.

SUNDAY, 8:15PM

Colts (-9) over Ravens [WIN: Colts 44, Ravens 20]
Normally, I'd write something here about how those poor Ravens gave it their all and barely came up short stopping the best team we've lived through, but their whining and complaining all week has gotten on everyone's nerves (including the NFL, who issued fines to a handful of Ravens players for their conduct during and after the game). Anyone who says that the Patriots shouldn't have won that game didn't watch the game. Yes, the Ravens had the right gameplan. Yes, they executed better than the Pats. Yes, the Pats made several key errors, including dropping two touchdown passes. But the final score is the final score, and if you can't be man enough to recognize that you let one slip through your own fingers, then you don't belong in the NFL. For once in my life, I hope the Colts put up 50 points on these guys just to shut them up.

MONDAY, 8:30PM

Saints (-3.5) over Falcons [WIN: Saints 43, Falcons 14]
I just don't know what to think about these Saints anymore. Inconsistency is the first reason beyond "bad decisions" that cause people to lost lots of money wagering on games, so I'm staying away from putting the ranch anywhere near New Orleans.