matt's pats blog

Eagle Eyes: Bills, Saints, Lions, Seahawks

SUNDAY, 1:00PM

Titans (-4) over Jaguars [LOSS: Titans 13, Jaguars 28]
Were it not for a 2-point loss to the Colts and a last-minute loss to the Bucs in a game in which Vinnie Young got injured, this Titans team could be undefeated. They're still pretty under the radar because they're winning by running the ball and playing strong defense, so we should take advantage of favorable lines like this one.

Chiefs (-3) over Broncos [LOSS: Chiefs 11, Broncos 27]
This one should be interesting, with the run-happy Chiefs playing the worst rushing defense in the league, but without their star back. Instead, they'll be plugging in an aged Priest Holmes and a rookie to try to get the job done. Well, if there's one team you want your new rushing attack to gain momentum against, it's Denver. Factor in the Arrowhead Advantage, and this is an attractive line.

Bills (-2.5) over Dolphins [WIN: Bills 13, Dolphins 10]
The Bills are right there with the Saints as the best turnaround teams in football right now. Were it not for that heartbreaker against Dallas in Week 5 on Monday Night Football, this Bills team would be on a 5-game tear after starting the year 0-3. Now they're in the wildcard hunt. We'll just say that there's a reason that the NFL moved the Pats/Bills game to the Sunday Night slot next week–watch out for these guys.

Steelers (-10) over Browns [LOSS: Steelers 31, Browns 28]
This one isn't as obvious as it looks, but I still think the Steelers pull this one out by a couple of scores.

Saints (-10.5) over Rams [LOSS: Saints 29, Rams 37]
The Saints are finally returning to their 2006 form, and I couldn't be happier about it. They're going to mop the floor with the Rams this week to give themselves their first winning record of the year.

Panthers (-4) over Falcons [LOSS: Panthers 13, Falcons 20]
This is a good bounce-back opportunity for the Panthers as they come off back-to-back losses against good teams (Indy and Tennessee). It's also a must-in for them as they travel to Lambeau Field next week to take on the red-hot Packers.

Eagles (+2.5) over Redskins [WIN: Eagles 33, Redskins 25]
This Eagles team is really tough to read, and I'm officially staying away from betting on games they're in for now. But since I'm forced to pick one of these teams, I'm going to say that the Birds continue the Win-Loss-Win-Loss pattern they've been following since Week 2.

Vikings (+6) over Packers [LOSS: Vikings 0, Packers 34]
Hard to believe that the Vikings are only 3-5 after seeing the never-ending Adrian Peterson highlight reel over the past few weeks. But 4 of their 5 losses have come by a touchdown or less, and 5 of the Packers' 7 wins have been by a touchdown or less, so I'm going with the under-a-touchdown-underdog Vikings this week in Lambeau.

SUNDAY, 4:15PM

Ravens (-4) over Bengals [LOSS: Ravens 7, Bengals 21]
I don't know what to do with either of these teams, but what I do know is that the Ravens are undefeated at home and the Bengals are winless on the road. That's as good an indicator as any for me…

Bears (-3.5) over Raiders [WIN: Bears 17, Raiders 6]
The Bears are coming off a bye week during which one can only hope they worked on improving the 2nd-worst rushing offense in the league. Unfortunately, the loss of 9-time pro-bowler Ruben Brown won't help that, as he was the anchor of the left side of the Bears' o-line. Either way, I don't trust this Raiders team enough to take them, even against a shaky team like the Bears.

Cowboys (-1.5) over Giants [WIN: Cowboys 31, Giants 20]
I can't wait to watch this game. The Giants are coming off a bye week that was preceded by a 6-game winning streak, and the Cowboys' only loss came against the best team of my lifetime. This should be a close one to the finish, but I think the 'Boys have a slightly better team overall.

Lions (+1.5) over Cardinals [LOSS: Lions 21, Cardinals 31]
All of a sudden, the Lions are 6-2 and right in the thick of the playoff race. I'll take them with the points against a team that hasn't won since they squeaked one out against the winless Rams in Week 5.

SUNDAY: 8:15PM

Colts (-3.5) over Chargers [LOSS: Colts 21, Chargers 23]
Another one I can't wait to watch. The Colts are one of two teams that I would take as underdogs in San Diego, and the other one will be 9-0 going into Week 11. This one is going to come down to which team executes it's gameplan the best, but I think Quentin Jammer's absence will mean a lot more than people are recognizing. The Chargers' secondary won't match up well enough against Indy's air attack to allow their offense to keep up. I say the Colts win by 10 or more.

MONDAY, 8:30PM

Seahawks (-10) over 49ers [WIN: Seahawks 24, 49ers 0]
Seattle went into San Fran and took it to the Niners, 23-3 in Week 4, and I see much of the same in this one. The Niners have lost 6 straight after starting the year 2-0, as teams have realized that they can't pass the ball. They're averaging only 224 total yards per game, which is bad enough for worst in the league, more than 50 yards less than the next-worst offense. This can only be good news for Seattle fans (obvious reasons) and network television (increased ratings for their Monday night lineups as a result of the blowout).